Pot Odds

Introduction

Every poker decision comes down to one question: Is this profitable in the long run?

Pot odds are your answer. They tell you the price you're getting on a call and help you determine if that price is good enough based on your chances of winning.

Think of it like shopping. If someone offers to sell you a lottery ticket with a 25% chance of winning $100, how much would you pay? If the ticket costs $20, it's a good deal (expected value: $25). If it costs $30, it's a bad deal.

Pot odds work the same way in poker.

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What Are Pot Odds?

Pot odds express the relationship between the current pot and the cost of your call. They can be written two ways:

As a Ratio: 4:1 (read as "four to one")

• Means you win $4 for every $1 you risk

As a Percentage: 20%

• Means you need to win 20% of the time to break even

Both formats tell you the same thing - they're just different ways of expressing the "price" of your call.

The Pot Odds Formula

Let's break this down:

1. Total Pot = Everything in the pot INCLUDING your opponent's current bet
2. Your Call = The amount you need to put in to continue

Example Calculation

The pot is $75. Your opponent bets $25. What are your pot odds?

Step 1: Calculate the total pot after the bet

• Total pot = $75 + $25 = $100

Step 2: Express as a ratio

• Pot odds = $100 : $25 = 4:1

Step 3: Convert to percentage (optional)

• $25 ÷ ($100 + $25) = $25 ÷ $125 = 0.20 = 20%

You're getting 4:1 odds, meaning you need to win just 20% of the time to break even.

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Converting Between Ratios and Percentages

Being able to quickly convert between formats is essential. Here's how:

Ratio to Percentage

Percentage to Ratio

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Common Bet Sizes and Their Pot Odds

Certain bet sizes come up constantly in poker. Memorizing these will let you calculate instantly at the table:

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The Rule of 2 and 4

Now you know how to calculate pot odds. But how do you know your chances of winning?

When you have a draw (like a flush draw or straight draw), you can quickly estimate your equity using the Rule of 2 and 4.

What Are Outs?

Outs are cards that will improve your hand to (likely) the best hand.

Common draws and their outs:

• Flush draw: 9 outs (13 cards of suit - 4 you can see)
• Open-ended straight draw (OESD): 8 outs
• Gutshot straight draw: 4 outs
• Two overcards: 6 outs (3 of each card)
• Flush draw + gutshot: 12 outs (combo draw)

When to Use Each Rule

Examples

Flush draw on the turn (one card to come):

• 9 outs × 2 = 18% chance to hit

Flush draw on the flop vs all-in (two cards to come):

• 9 outs × 4 = 36% chance to hit

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Putting It All Together

Here's the decision-making framework:

Complete Hand Example

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Practice Problems

Let's cement your understanding with some rapid-fire practice:

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Common Mistakes to Avoid

Mistake 1: Forgetting to Add the Bet to the Pot

Wrong: Pot is $100, bet is $50, so odds are 100:50 = 2:1 Right: Pot is $100 + $50 = $150, so odds are 150:50 = 3:1

Always calculate pot odds based on what you're winning (pot + bet), not just the original pot.

Mistake 2: Using Rule of 4 When You Shouldn't

Only use Rule of 4 when you're guaranteed to see both cards (facing an all-in). If opponent can bet again on the turn, use Rule of 2.

Mistake 3: Ignoring Implied Odds

Pot odds tell you the immediate price. But sometimes you can win more money on later streets. This is called implied odds - we'll cover this in a future lesson.

Mistake 4: Counting Outs That Aren't Clean

Not all outs are created equal. If you're drawing to a flush but a flush card also completes an obvious straight for your opponent, that out is "dirty" and less valuable.

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Summary

Pot odds are foundational. Every advanced concept builds on this skill. Practice until these calculations become instant and automatic.

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Test Your Knowledge

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